Research

Publication

• The Accuracy of IMF Crises Nowcasts, 2022, International Journal of Forecasting (with Theo Eicher)

• “Exchange Rates and Domestic Credit – Can Macroprudential Policy Reduce the Link?”, 2023, Chapter 12 in book “Shocks and Capital Flows Policy Responses in a Volatile World” (with E. Nier and T. Olafsson)

Policy and Working Paper:

• “Digital Transformation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Economies.”, 2025, IMF Departmental Paper (with R. Bi, F. Fareed, J.D. Lee, S. Rehman, T. Yuan)

• “Analytical Chapter 2: Reversing the Trend: Enhancing Medium-Term Growth Prospects.”, 2024, IMF Departmental Paper (with team of IMF)

• “The State of Emerging Markets: A New Perspective on Clusters and Taxonomies.”, 2015, IMF Regional Economic Outlook of Middle East and Central Asia (with team of IMF)

• “Rethinking Financial Deepening: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets.”, 2015, IMF Staff Discussion Note 15/08 (with team of IMF)

• “Emerging Markets in Transition: Growth Prospects and Challenges.”, 2014, IMF Staff Discussion Note 14/6 (wwith team of IMF)

• “Assessing Reserve Adequacy – Further Considerations.”, 2013, IMF Policy Paper (with team of IMF)

Work in Progress:

• Nowcasting GCC GDP (forthcoming fall 2025) (with Y. Korniyenko, G. Polo, T. Yuan, working paper)